The bigger the hand samples, the closer to our expected value will be our profit rate. Since the game of poker is different, there are major differences from our winning rate, particularly if the hand sample is low (i.e. less than 50,000 hands).
Defining Poker Variance is a long-term game. Although it is perfectly possible to win in a large sample of hands if we are skilled enough, positive and negative strands are normally expected in the short term. This is what we commonly call the “variance” of these positive and negative strips. Most players do not realize how important this can be.
Most people are surprised to know in our past example of big blinds that a player with 6 of the 100 blinds will lose money in 100,000 hands. If a player has a large number of players, it is only time before a poor streak happens that changes the outcomes temporarily.
On the contrary, you can also win 100,000 poker hands to a losing player. Other people have just left their jobs to go to poker, safe from these initial earnings, to find that they have nothing to expect of money unless their poker skills are enhanced.
Let’s turn to a practical example to gain a better understanding: suppose you play an online tournament every Sunday, featuring 7,000 people and paying 16 percent of the scored people. Your investment return (ROI) in this case is 50%.
Well, now let’s say that for the last ten years you played the tournament every Sunday. You didn’t stop playing it for a single Sunday, you missed every party your friends had, you couldn’t take part in a live tournaments, you did nothing but play this game.
This is the aspect you need to concentrate on, since the question here is: Which proportion of times do you assume in those 10 years that you’re losing money?
When you say, people get confused. “I have a return on investment of 50 percent and have been performing for the last 10 years through Sunday. “And this reasoning is wrong. I have to play it almost always. To your surprise, the variance calculators have shown that if a player has a return on investment of 50 percent for ten years, he will lose money 40 percent of the time.
Note: Online variance calculators are available, assisting us in determining the best and worst paths, taking into account a certain rate of profit, the normal variance and the number of situations. In this post, we are going to talk about them.
As part of your game strategy, use variance Let’s extrapolate the two key principles in variance mentioned above.
1.-The results for the short term may be misleading and reliable. Anyone can run well with 20,000 hands, a big winning graphic which does not show a player a decent poker or even a winner.
2.-Even good players have long, bad and long periods of breakthroughs (no win or lose). Therefore, a strong mental position to aid in combating variance is very important.
Choice of the game and variance Your variance can be great if you play poker tournaments because big blinds do not remain static, they increase in tournaments. At the beginning, you could win 10 big blinds every 100, but that will not help if you do badly in the later phases of the event.
When you read this, you will think “But I want to play tournaments, I love them! I love them! Isn’t it a lot of people who live on tournaments?
Sure, but a lot of professionals are looking for value. You recognize that greater variation is implied in a bigger player sector, thereby keeping the buy-ins low and limited turnouts. All the time they play. You know that the less you play in tournaments, the more likely the negative variance can be neutralised.
The issue with big tournaments is that while it is fun to play, you are challenged to go far. You can expect to go far continuously if you play on a field of hundreds or two hundred people. But, if there are thousands of players on the field, you can only go far once a year. Your variance in these situations will have an excessive impact on your findings.
It is a good idea to have a chance to play through poker types to counter variance.
I was lucky to win a huge online tournament when I started to play poker. The award was not big, but for a teenager it was a lot.
I was congratulated by people and told how fun it is to play poker, but I stopped playing tournaments two months later. I thought people were wrong. He was fortunate that he won the tournament and that there would be a negative difference.
Then I started studying cash games. Once I began, I turned out to be the world’s worst cash player. A year later, I was able on the internet to take part in any small cash item I liked.
If I trained and battled, I could go up to higher levels like 200 and 400 and therefore create a good income to make me feel comfortable living out of what I want.
I have been one of those who argue that if players are to avoid variance, they have to split their play time in this way: 80% of the hours have to be spent on cash items.
15% of the hours should be spent on small and low buy-in tournaments.
It must spend 5 percent of the hours looking for glory.
Every Sunday you can play but only that big tournament. Know it’s betting. You’re charging a little bit of excitement and practice. You better for you if you make money from all this.
The reason you want to spend more time playing cash games is simple: big blinds in a cash game are always worth the same, if you always have the same amount of time.
If you’ve been doing badly in a cash game for a while, that’s not vital. You will continue to play until the variance turns and is in your favor if you are a winning player. For tournaments, this is much more difficult to achieve.
Additionally, cash games are often played with large stacks of chips. It shows us how to play rivers, turns and flops.
I want to say to you that you will be always in practice if you play six-max games. You need to know how to deal quickly with aggressive players. Constantly exposed to challenging situations will quickly increase your poker knowledge.
Do you do bad or just think it?
There’s an easy way to find out if you’re doing something. The number of big blinds that you win against your hands needs to be assessed.
In tournament poker, this is particularly so, as high limits and the final stages of the competition can eliminate first-level winning. You can even get automated software to check your hands and see your own results after playing.
A good feature of these programs is that their expected value (EV) is also calculated. If all showdowns were fair, and without surprises, your expected value throws your profit rate over 100 in large shadows.
Actually if you throw a coin into the air for your complete 100 blind pile, it’ll be 100 blind or loss to your stats. This is where you can appreciate the expected value. The EV calculates the coin jerk as neutral, i.e. zero broad blinds. This gives a more accurate and true overview of how you play poker.
Every 100 hands with pencil and paper or with a program you can calculate the large blinds, but in any form you choose it’s good to know this figure. If you are vulnerable to uncertainty, they will let you know.
It’s not a bad thing if your big blinds are over one hundred and three half blinds! It is unbelievably vulnerable to variance, however. It’ll be much more difficult to go wrong when the big blinds over 100 are 10 big blinds.
I hope these tips will support your game and improve your career as a poker player.